Wednesday, 26 October 2016

Nintendo Switch Talk and Reports

It's been a busy few days and there's been a lot of rumours that nearly fill a tweet, so we decided to bundle them all together with some information from the Nintendo quarterly report, and sprinkle that with some comments from developers and analysts. 

Quarterly report
Today is Nintendo's shareholder meeting and we're getting little tidbits from Nintendo which gives us some insight

  • Nintendo is "confident" that consumers won't confuse the Switch as a 3DS refresh
  • Nintendo reconfirmed there would be no further announcements this year.
  • Nintendo hasn't set a price, won't be sold at a loss BUT Nintendo is "listening to Consumer conversation" on it. 
  • Nintendo expects to ship 2 million units this fiscal year, which ends March 2017. So basically they expect to move 2 million units at launch. 
  • Unsurprisingly the Wii U and 3DS haven't done well this quarter with the NX silently dominating the conversation.
  • Lifetime sales of the Wii U are 13.36 million units and 92.35 million games. 
  • Lifetime sales of the 3DS are 61.56 million units and 293.40 million games
We also got a look at how Nintendo's first party titles have sold.

Mario Kart 8 - 8.00 million pcs.
New Super Mario Bros. U - 5.45 million pcs.
Super Mario 3D World - 5.19 million pcs.
Nintendo Land - 5.13 million pcs.
Super Smash Bros. for Wii U - 4.99 million pcs.
Splatoon - 4.57 million pcs.
Super Mario Maker - 3.73 million pcs.
New Super Luigi U - 2.74 million pcs.
The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker HD - 1.98 million pcs.
Mario Party 10 - 1.94 million pcs.
Pokémon X/Pokémon Y - 15.64 million pcs.
Mario Kart 7 - 13.94 million pcs.
Pokémon Omega Ruby/Pokémon Alpha Sapphire - 13.18 million pcs.
SUPER MARIO 3D LAND - 10.98 million pcs.
New Super Mario Bros. 2 - 10.60 million pcs.
Animal Crossing: New Leaf - 10.34 million pcs.
Super Smash Bros. for Nintendo 3DS - 8.35 million pcs.
Tomodachi Life - 5.30 million pcs.
Luigi's Mansion: Dark Moon - 5.03 million pcs.
The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time 3D - 4.52 million pcs.
Pokemon OR/AS - 1.3 million pcs (this figure is for Q2 only)
Kirby: Planet Robobot - 1.08 million pcs. (this figure is for Q2 only)

For comparison PS4 first party exclusive: Uncharted 4 has sold 4.20 million units and Black Ops 3 that released on 5 platforms sold 23 million.

Laura Dale, who first broke the Switch's form has some more info from her sources. First, up the Nintendo Switch won't be sold in any bundle without the dock, to be clear there will be no "portable only" option. This doesn't mean there won't be one down the line, just not for a while IF it happens

Secondly she The Joy-Con R (Right) apparently has an "IR pointer" for games that use the touchscreen, obviously, this reconfirms her previous rumour that the Switch has a touchscreen.

The guys at King Avery Games has cleaned up the image of the Nintendo Switch Pro-controller and believes the pad doesn't have a headphone port. That is assuming of cause the (surprisingly 'used) looking controller in the trailer isn't a dummy. You can see for yourself

These are not rumours, as they're simply people saying things themselves or making predictions.

David Gibson of Macquire (the guys who preemptively got disappointed in the switch before its reveal and downgraded Nintendo's status) believes the Switch will cost $250 and will sell roughly 10.6 million units a year.

Mark Lipacis of 2Jefferies & Co" believes that Nvidia is going to make between £200-320m a year, they too think the first year sales of the Switch will be 10 million units (or as low as 4 million)

DrinkBox Studios the extremely talented guys behind GKUK favourite Guacamelee are impressed with the Nintendo Switch and has publicly asked for some Dev Kits.

It seems the Switch has sparked something within Hideki Kamiya (director of Okami, Bayonetta 1, Vanquished and Scalebound) as he is "kind of" interested in porting Wonderful 101 to the new device. We already know his studio Platinum Games is an official partner for the Switch which lends some credit to an old rumour that PG was working on Bayonetta 2.

Abe's Take
whilst the market analysts are bullish on the Switch (they seem to either want a Nintendo branded PC or a phone) the developer and gamer response have been overwhelmingly positive, So it reasonable to think we can expect these Switch rumours to keep on coming. Nintendo expecting to ship two million units in a month suggests we could see the Switch launch in the part way or late into March.

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